Fantasy Football: Auction Draft Strategies Part 1

Weather you determined your player values yourself or are using a published source, you’ll need to evaluate them and determine a strategy. In general a strategy is a plan for how you want to allocate your money. Do you want to spend most of your money on two top running backs? Do you want a deep bench that you can swap in if the match-ups are better? Questions like these will determine your strategy.

There are two main strategies for auction drafting. Option one: sending most of your money on the top talent, and filling out your roster with inexpensive players. Option two: forgoing the top talent and focusing on filling your roster with mid level players. There is no concrete answer as to which strategy is the best. Additionally, you can combine the two strategies to create a multitude of hybrid approaches.

There are a number of factors to consider when deciding on a strategy.

• The league setup; Rules, scoring, and number of teams
• The talent breakdown based on your dollar values
• Your preference when balancing risk and reward.
• Your experience level with auction drafting.
• The experience level your opponents with auction drafting.
• The tendencies of your league.

I will be exploring these factors in greater detail. I’ll also discuss ways to map out your strategy, and how to modify your strategy on the fly.

Fantasy Football: Auction Draft Tactics Part 3

Tight Ends

There are really only two strategies for TEs. So the tactics are fairly straight forward. If you strategy is to nab a top tier TE, then just like with QBs and WRs, nominate players from other positions so people spend their elsewhere.

A surprise tactic can be effective with TEs too. While people are still grabbing up the top RBs and WRs, nominate a TE who is just outside the top tier. People might just pass, choosing to worry about a TE later. You might snag him for cheap. But if you get any action, let it go.

If you didn’t pay for a top tier TE, and you didn’t go for the surprise, or it failed, then your left looking for a bargain. Evaluate how deep the remaining TE field is. If is plenty deep, then hold out and just get one for a dollar. If there is a drop off in talent then try to sneak away one from the second tier before they are all gone. Outside of the top tier, avoid a bidding war for a TE.

Defenses

The tactics for defense are similar to TE. But since generally the top defenses only for a few dollars, any tactic will not likely have a big effect. The only tactic that might save you a dollar or two is the surprise tactic. Nominate a top defense early in the draft when people are usually not thinking about their defense. If no one bites then you can score a top defense cheap. Conversely, since most people will have a lot of money left, you just might get someone to overpay for a defense. That will save you a few dollars later on.

Kickers

I have yet to find a reason to pay more than one dollar for a kicker. So with this in mind, there is no money to be saved on a kicker. However one of my favorite tactics is to nominate my kicker of choice with my first nomination. If anyone wants to pay two dollars for a kicker then you’ve gotten them to overpay. Most likely you’ll now have a top kicker for just a dollar and you can forget about them all together.

Conclusion

After you develop a draft strategy you need a tactical plan in order to execute it. Pick and choose from the tactics I discussed the ones that fit with your strategy. This will help tip the scales in your favor. If you can save a few dollars on your purchases, then you will be able load your team up with more talent. Does this guarantee a successful fantasy football season? No, but it will help you create a solid foundation on which to build.

Fantasy Football: Auction Draft Tactics Part 2

Running Backs

Remaining flexible with your strategy will probably pay the biggest dividends when it comes to drafting RBs. But if you must have the best RB then you are really at the mercy of the market. There is not much tactically you can do to affect the top tier of RBs. Just carefully analyze the market and stay in the action.

If your strategy is to get bargains on the second and third tier RBs, then drive up the prices on the tier one RBs. The people who paid a lot for top RBs will usually not sink a lot more money into RBs. So strike as soon as the prices begin to fall.

If you are targeting a specific RB who falls in the mid tiers, keep an eye on who still needs to fill starting RB spots and who has money. If there is a person who has plenty of money and still needs a RB or two, then hold of on nominating your guy. But if no one has the money and empty starting spots then fire away. You should get your guy without much action.

When it comes to backup running backs. The market and your available funds will really dictate your actions. If everyone is really low on money then just nominate the RBs you want. If a few people still have money, then look to see what those people still need. Nominate the best options from the other positions they need instead of RBs and entice them to spend.

Wide Receivers

You tactical options for WRs are very similar to those of the RBs. Except the top tier is more like QBs. If you want a top tier WR, the only way to save a few bucks is to get people to spend their money elsewhere. So nominate the top RBs and QBs first. The longer it takes for the WRs to hit the board, the greater your chances of savings.

Once you get to the second tier (and maybe third), there are usually several players who have very similar projected stats. When this is the case, I like to nominate the WRs that I don’t really want. People shopping in the second tier will likely bite, leaving you the chance to save a few dollars on the guys you want. If you get the sense that people being more patient then you could just nominate who you want. Or you could change gears and toss up a TE, QB, or whatever position most people still need. You might be able to distract a few people leaving them less money for the second tier WRs.

Once you get to the backup WRs, you have the same options as the backup RBs. Factoring in the market, your funds, and other peoples needs. Nominate away, or hold back accordingly.

Next time i’ll look at Tight Ends, Defenses, and Kickers.

Fantasy Football: Auction Draft Tactics Part 1

Executing your strategy in an auction draft can be tricky. You could just hope for the best when it comes to getting players at the price you want. Or you can employ some tactics to tip the scales in your favor. I’ll give some general tactical advice first. Then i’ll break a few down by position. Your strategy will dictate which tactics will help you accomplish your goals.

General

The most basic tactic is to stay in the action. Don’t pass on a player just because you don’t want them. If you know that a player should go much higher than your minimum bid, then bid, keep your options open. If you only bid on the players you really want, people will catch on and drive the prices up on you. In other words, disguise your intentions.

In general when nominating players, I like to zig when they zag. If everyone is nominating tier one RBs then I’ll nominate a tier two WR or a DEF. Doing this can accomplish two things. You can earn a few bargains because people will be focused elsewhere on their roster. And you can also help establish the going rate in other areas, giving you the information you need to adjust your strategy.

Take advantage of other players tendencies. Use your people reading skills to assist you in your decision making. If you see that another person is only bidding on players that they really want, then drive the prices up on them. Also look for players who will always try to win a one on one bidding war. Make them pay too much whenever possible and but don’t get sucked in to paying too much yourself.

Some people will broadcast their intentions by nominating a player for a higher price or making large increases in the bidding. When this happens it is usually a strong indicator that they really want this player. First, don’t do this, second, take advantage of those who do when possible.

Also remember that there are no real ‘sleeper’ picks in auction drafts, you may have a guy you want that no one else is thinking about. But if you nominate him, everyone else is now thinking about him. And anyone with the funds can steal your guy. So timing is important, hold on to your ‘sleeper’ till people either don’t have the funds, or the roster spots to make a run at your guy.

Quarterbacks

Your strategy will have a major impact on your tactics for drafting a QB. If you want an elite passer then you will be at the mercy of the market. However if you can get other people to spend their money elsewhere first, than you just may be able to save a few bucks on that elite QB. So on your turn to nominate, put up the big money RBs and WRs first, and be sure to drive the price up if you can.

If you have your eye on a specific second tier QB then you’ll have to pay close attention to the market and how many people still need QBs. Once the first of the second tier QBs is off the board, you’ll know the price range you can expect. If you like what you see then go ahead and nominate the guy you want. You can wait for a few more second tier guys to be sold if you want to try to save a dollar or two, but don’t wait too long. If too many people want a second tier QB you might end up in a small bidding war for the last one or two guys in that tier.

If you are looking for a bargain priced QB then strike while there are still a few better options on the board. People will pay little attention to a tier three QB when there are still a few tier two QBs left. You might get your guy with little or no contest. However, don’t go grabbing your tier three guy before the market for the tier two guys is established. You might get surprised and be able to grab a tier two guy for a tier three price. But don’t wait wait too long or leave yourself too little money. People may start grabbing backup QBs and you’ll be left with slim pickings.

When it comes to backup QBs, your general strategy will be to get one very cheap, for a dollar or just a bit more. There is not too much tactically you can do here. However if you have a specific guy in mind, wait as long as possible, if no one has a lot of cash left then you shouldn’t have a problem getting your guy.

Next time i’ll continue the tactical breakdown by position.

Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty

This was one of the most anticipated PC video game releases ever. Twelve years have gone by since the original game was released. It has been several years since I last played a real time strategy game too (Warcraft 3). So I, like a million others, bought into the hype and purchased the game the day it was released. It is rare for me to not wait and read some reviews. However with Blizzards track record of recent success, I felt secure in my purchase.

I’m not going to write a very detailed review here. If you are looking for that, here. But I will say that I’m very happy with my purchase. The single player campaign has good depth. The multi player has endless variety and offers a challenge to players of any skill level.

What 3 things do you think will become obsolete in the next ten years?

1. CDs / DVDs / Blueray, any form of optical disk
2. Home Phones
3. Newspapers

Fantasy Football: Determining Player Values Part 5

Last time I discussed taking the dollar values for players and creating a strategy. You could stop there and have plenty of ammunition for a great draft. However there is a piece left undone. As the draft goes on, particularly in an auction draft, things change. Sometimes people go wild and top talent is going for over the top prices. Sometimes people hold back waiting for bargains to pop up. You can discover these trends and adjust your strategy accordingly by calculating player values dynamically.

A players value is based on their VORP, the total money, and the total VORP. Throughout the draft a player VORP will not change. However the total money available and the total VORP available will change. As people spend money, the total money available goes down. As players get drafted the total VORP available does down.

If the players all get drafted for the price you calculated for them then the ratio remains constant and the players dollar values will not change. If people are over spending then the money will reduce faster than the talent (total VORP). This will reduce the cost of players left because there is less money in the market. If people are holding back and saving then amount of money will remain high. This will raise the cost of the remaining players.

By recalculating the players value dynamically based on the money left and the total VORP left you will really know when to strike. When you see players values start to drop you’ll know bargains will soon be available. When you see players values going up you’ll know there is money still out there and you could get sucked into a bidding war (which could be good if you get the other person to pay to much).

This additional calculation might seem complicated. However it can be accomplished in a spreadsheet. As players get drafted you input the value they sold for and cross them off. A spreadsheet can be programmed to reduce the total money and total VORP accordingly, then recalculate the players value automatically.

Launchy

This quick launch program can save you a ton of mouse clicks. You can forget about looking for an icon or browsing the start menu. This app puts all of those programs just a few keystrokes away. By pressing the default alt+space, a small window launches with a text box. You start to type the name of the application you want and it will find it within a few letters, press enter and it launches your app. I can also launch websites, do simple math, and open files or directories. It does take a little configuration to get going, but it is worth the effort.

Launchy

My Top Ten: Summer Beers

Not just summer seasonal beers, but beers that I love when the weather gets warm.

1. Weihenstephaner Hefeweisen
2. Dogfish Head 60 min IPA
3. Allagash White Ale
4. Goose Island Honker’s Ale
5. Dogfish Head Festina Pêche
6. Sam Adams Hallertau Imperial Pilsner
7. Sierra Nevada Wheat
8. Sam Adams Summer Ale
9. DuClaw’s Bare Ass Blonde
10. Yuengling Lager

Fantasy Football: Determining Player Values Part 4

Last time I discussed how to calculate a dollar value for each player. Dollar value = players VORP * total money / total VORP. Now that you have a dollar value for each player you can start to really make some observations.

By just looking at projected fantasy output you might assume that a 150 point RB, WR, and TE are all equal. However if you use VORP to calculate a dollar value, you might find that that same RB is worth $20, that WR is worth $22, and that TE is worth $13.

Look within each position and across positions. Where are the large drop offs in value in each position. How do the values of the top WRs  fit in with the RBs. How valuable is the top TE. Knowing when to switch gears and stop only drafting RBs and WRs depends on correctly valuing QBs, TEs, and DEFs. As the draft goes on you’ll know when value at a position is dried up or when there are still some value to be had.

Your strategy is going to be your own. But by calculating an accurate value for each player you can really begin analyze the field and look for places to get good value for your picks. Keeping current with injuries and starting status is always important as well. Knowing bye weeks and backups is also helpful. Using these tools to create a strategy and staying current with player news should help you execute a successful draft.

I do have one more addition to take the dollar value calculation that will take it from a static value to a dynamic value. I’ll discuss that next time.